A recent Guardian report addressed the issue of American presidents and foreign wars, explaining a “rally around the flag” effect that appears to boost the standings of sitting presidents if they take certain foreign actions.
“Wars can be great for presidential popularity,” the report said, citing the conclusions of political scientist John Mueller who said that effect results when presidents take international action, involves the president directly, and is “specific, dramatic and sharply focused.”
It reported that a 2015 study showed the 2003 invasion of Iraq gave George W. Bush a surge in support.
It may not work, however, for Joe Biden, whose approval ratings are catastrophically low even as he is facing the looming dilemma of just exactly how America should respond to a conflict on the Ukraine border with Russia.
Convention of States Action, in partnership with The Trafalgar Group – one of America’s most accurate pollsters in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021 – has released the results of a new national survey showing Americans are opposed to that move.
The results are from surveys conducted January 12-14 of over 1,000 likely 2022 election voters. The poll of 1,081 respondents has a margin of error of 2.98%.
“Our leaders often forget that the American people have great wisdom in understanding the nature of threats abroad,” said Mark Meckler, president of Convention of States Action. “Voters in all parties stand squarely behind a U.S. military defense of a free and democratic Taiwan, even though that comes with great risk – and potentially a high cost to our nation – against the growing threat from China.
“Conversely, while voters clearly sympathize with Ukraine and support assisting them through diplomacy and other means, there is no support for U.S. military intervention should a conflict arise with Russia. The Biden administration should take note.”
The polling showed 84.8% of American voters think the U.S. should have limited involvement in the event Russia invades Ukraine.
It revealed 31.1% believe the U.S. should provide supplies and military weapons, 30.5% think the U.S. should provide only diplomatic area pressure, and 23.2% believe the U.S. should provide U.S. military advisers.
But only 15.3% say U.S. troops should be provided as boots on the ground in the event of that conflict.
On the other hand, 58.1% say the U.S. should use military assets to defend Taiwan if China invades there, and 41.9% believe the opposite.
The perspective was similar across the political divides: Regarding Ukraine, 30.7% of Democrats said the U.S. should provide only diplomatic pressure, 12.6% boots on the ground, 27.1% military advisers and 29.5% supplies and weapons.
The GOP numbers for those categories were 35.4%, 16.4%, 16.2% and 31.9%.
Independents were 22%, 18.1%, 27.3% and 32.5%.
Regarding Taiwan, 56.2% of Democrat voters believe the Biden administration should use U.S. military assets to defend Taiwan if Taiwan is invaded by China, 57.4% independents agree, and so do 60.8% of Republicans.
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